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Social Science Japan Journal Advance Access originally published online on January 20, 2009
Social Science Japan Journal 2009 12(1):121-136; doi:10.1093/ssjj/jyn065
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Social Science Japan Journal 12:121-136 (2009)
© 2009 Oxford University Press

Survey Article

By-Elections in Japan

Willy JOU*

Willy JOU is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, University of California Irvine. An article he coauthored on public understanding of democracy across 49 countries has been published in the Journal of Democracy. His current research focuses on political cleavages in new democracies in central Eastern Europe and East Asia. He can be contacted by e-mail at jouw{at}uci.edu

By-elections have received relatively scarce scholarly attention, and common features identified by existing works largely derive from studies of Western countries with relatively stable patterns of party competition. The following pages contribute to the literature by examining by-elections in the Japanese House of Representatives since electoral reform in 1994. Changing patterns of party competition adds interest to observing by-elections taking place in the context of an evolving two-party system. The paper discusses how results from Japanese by-elections conform to, or deviate from, expectations based on findings from previous studies, in terms of the frequency and direction of seat changes, the turnout rates, the presence of minor party and independent candidates and the timing of by-elections during the legislative period. It then tests the impact of these factors, along with government approval ratings and macroeconomic indicators, on governing party performance in by-elections. The number of candidates, cabinet support and prefecture-level unemployment rates are found to exert a significant influence. Separate analysis is also carried out for by-elections characterized by head-to-head contests between the two major parties.

* I would like to thank the anonymous referees of SSJJ for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper.


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